Your #1 guide to Prediction Markets
Understand how prediction markets work, how to read probabilities, and how to use collective intelligence to make better decisions.
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Highlighted Features
Everything You Need to Understand Prediction Markets
A clear, practical explanation of how prediction markets work — from probabilities and pricing to incentives, accuracy, and real-world limitations.
Probabilities & Pricing
Learn how market prices translate into probabilities, why prices move over time, and how collective beliefs are reflected in prediction market odds.
Incentives & Market Dynamics
Understand how incentives, liquidity, and trader behavior shape market outcomes — and why incentives matter more than individual forecasts.
Accuracy, Risks & Limits
Explore when prediction markets work well, where they fail, and what risks, biases, and regulatory constraints must be taken into account.
Experience the Future of Forecasting
Prediction markets are a fast way to measure uncertainty. Prices move as information moves — translating news, incentives, and crowd judgment into probabilities.
This guide shows you how it works, what’s reliable, and what to watch out for.
A Global Approach to Forecasting
Prediction markets are used worldwide to make better forecasts. They bring together many views and pieces of information into one simple signal: a probability.
As news changes, prices move — showing how expectations shift in real time across different regions and time zones.
Only on PredictGuides
Research & Real-World Developments in Prediction Markets
How prediction markets are studied, regulated, and used today
New prediction-market regulatory rules are coming, CFTC Chair says
U.S. regulators are drafting clearer standards for event contracts, affecting how prediction markets operate.
Prediction markets act as a leading indicator for economic data
Reports show traders use platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to anticipate macroeconomic trends like inflation.
Industry response to insider-trading concerns
The Coalition for Prediction Markets (including Kalshi, Coinbase, and Robinhood) launched a seven-figure PR campaign addressing insider-trading scrutiny — showing how platforms are shaping their public stance.
INSIDE THE ECOSYSTEM
What to Expect
Beyond theory, this guide brings together expert perspectives, real-world experience, and ongoing developments shaping prediction markets today.
Insights from Industry Leaders
This guide includes perspectives drawn from interviews and public commentary by founders, operators, researchers, and analysts working directly with prediction markets.
How Prediction Markets Are Used in the Real World
Learn how prediction markets are applied in areas like economics, elections, technology forecasting, and policy analysis.
Ongoing Developments and Open Questions
Prediction markets are evolving. This guide highlights current debates around regulation, information quality, incentives, and public trust — including where experts disagree.
EXCLUSIVE ACCESS
Insight You Won’t Find Elsewhere
Alongside clear explanations of prediction markets, you’ll find insights drawn from ongoing interviews, real-world market behaviour, and developments that are often missed in mainstream coverage.